Created March 24, 2020
Updated daily

COVID-19 PSA 3
   
Presented by Orren Whiddon, Four Quarters InterFaith

This page is created as a one-stop source for the latest graphical information on the COVID-19 Pandemic, and is updated daily.
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    Epidemiology is an art of numbers. Data. Science. It is not the politics of blame. It is about saving lives.

         May Spirit Bless and Protect those who are risking their lives to save others,
                in this time of change and challenge.


In this PSA I will outline some basic concepts and provide links to what are becoming the gold standards in global data aggregation and presentation for the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. In understanding the data you can make much better projections for how this pandemic will affect you, your family and our nation. Let's begin.

            First, let's define some terms and concepts:

    Linear Growth: is additive growth over time. If every week something increases 2-4-6-8-10; that is growth added by 2 over time.

    Exponential Growth: is multiplied growth over time. If every week something increases 2-4-8-16-32; that is growth multiplied by 2 over time.

    Doubling Time: is the amount of time for exponential growth to double. In the above example the doubling time is one week.


     Linear or Exponential Graphs: In the graph to the left, the Y-axis is linear, every division increases by the same amount. A graph can also have a Y-axis that is exponential and is called a LOG graph.
     If the red exponential line of the above graph were displayed as a LOG graph, the line would be straight as long as the doubling time remained the same. Changes in the doubling time, ie: the rate of growth, would produce a curved line, thus allowing changing rates of growth to be easily seen. This will become very important in the data that follows, so always check to see if you are viewing a Linear or a LOG graph.

    Confirmed Cases: are those COVID-19 cases confirmed by test or diagnostic evaluation, almost all confirmed cases are of a patient presenting in a hospital setting, and is an accurate number. Best science from the few countries that have done large scale testing is that Confirmed Cases are about 20% of Total Cases.

    Total Cases: is at this time unknowable, because to know that number we would have to test the total population at one time. For many reasons Total Cases will be much larger than Confirmed Cases. The News Media tends to conflate these two numbers, but the important thing to remember is that the infectious population is likely to be five times greater than the number of "official" cases.

    Confirmed Deaths: are the subset of confirmed cases who die while diagnosed with COVID-19, almost all in a hospital setting, and is an accurate number.

    Total Deaths: in western nations is likely to be equal to Confirmed Deaths. In the third world many deaths will go unreported.

    Transmissability: is the relative infectiousness of a disease, often expressed as the exponent (Ro). Seasonal Flu is generally quoted as Ro of 1.25, allowing for relatively slow growth. COVID-19 has a guessed at Ro of 2.5. Since these are exponential factors, the doubling time for an Ro of 2.5 is far less than that for Ro of 1.25. Lower doubling times mean greater growth rate.

     Ultimate Fatality: is the number of deaths divided by the total population. The American CDC gives a value of 0.01% for the Seasonal Flu, which is a well researched infection. With a population of 340m we expect to see about 35,000 deaths each year to the Flu.
     Ultimate Fatality for COVID-19 is at this time unknowable, and will only be known after the pandemic has subsided. But unlike the Seasonal Flu there is ZERO immunity to this completely new virus, which means that lacking a vaccine we can expect up to a 70% final infection rate before the virus exhausts its reservoir of accessible, uninfected hosts. Suppression policies will stretch out the time required to reach this final rate.

     Case Fatality: A commonly quoted value for fatality of Confirmed Cases in the USA is 3.5%, but that appears to be decreasing, perhaps to as little as 1%.
     A 70% bulk infection rate of which 20% present at hospital with a 1% Case Fatality rate would yield about 500,000 deaths in these United States. Assuming effective suppression policies over the next 3 months of a 30% infection rate, yields 200,000 deaths.
    An Ultimate Fatality Rate of 0.1% would yield about 340,000 deaths. Any values we use for any of these factors yields a huge number of deaths and a completely overwhelmed health care system.

     We use <  ourworldindata.org  > as our primary source, which comes directly from the European CDC and American CDC data. Click the link for their excellent overview of the data and global situation, a deep read.
     We also use <  avatorl.org   > sourced from Johns Hopkins data.

     Most of the graphical displays are hot-linked to their database and will update the latest data when you refresh the page. All sliders and selection points are active, so you can customize your graph, right here on this page. An explanation for each graph is provided.

     Commenting is active at the bottom of this page.

    Confirmed Cases proportional to population by country


Y-scale is linear. Graph gives infection rate proportioned to population allowing country by country comparison of bulk infection rates.
Adjust the right-hand timescale slider to get today's info, and you may add more countries to the graph.

    Confirmed Cases/Deaths, by LOG/Linear scale, by Country

The single most important graph on this page.
Displays as Confirmed Deaths or Confirmed Cases. Displays as LOG (rate of change) or as linear (absolute numbers).
Selectable for Countries to Compare.
Sourced from Johns Hopkins data by © Andrzej Leszkiewicz. Contacts: Twitter, LinkedIn, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. at
https://avatorl.org/covid-19/?page=DashboardNew

    Ratio of Confirmed Cases to Confirmed Deaths, by Country

Y-scale is linear. Graph gives ratio of Confirmed Deaths to Confirmed Cases, country by country.
Adjust the right-hand timescale slider to get today's info, and you may add more countries to the graph.
Slide the slider far right to create a bar graph.

    A United States by State look at COVID-19 infection
Sourced from Johns Hopkins data by © Andrzej Leszkiewicz. Contacts: Twitter, LinkedIn, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..by
https://avatorl.org/covid-19/?page=DashboardNew

Explore the United States by State functions contained in this one page.     
For more of Andrzej Leszkiewicz's work, visit his full data site.      Contacts: Twitter, LinkedIn, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..